The highly-secretive epic Avatar isn't coming out until December, but 20th Century Fox & James Cameron gave Christmas presents a little early this year. On August 21st, "Avatar Day", the Avatar trailer was released online, and 16 minutes of the film unspooled worldwide in IMAX 3D. In development for nearly fifteen years, Avatar is already a victim of its own hype, pegged as the greatest story ever told, and a game-changer in all respects.
But it'll be a miracle if it doesn't bomb.
Conservative estimates place Avatar's budget at $250 million. Combined with prints and advertising, the total budget could easily exceed $400 million. Even if Avatar is the highest-grossing film this year, it will remain in the red. It needs to meet or beat James Cameron's last film, Titanic, just to break even - and considering Titanic is the highest-grossing film of all time, that's a very scary thought.
True, Avatar shares Titanic's release date, and dutiful captain Cameron. But that's all. Titanic is the epitome of high concept: a forbidden romance set against one of history's most famous tragedies. Avatar is...well, there's some aliens, some alien monsters, and some people, I think they're at war. One of them seems to love another one of them. And they're blue! To quote the official Avatar site: "On the distant moon Pandora, a reluctant hero embarks on a journey of redemption and discovery as he leads a heroic battle to save a civilization". Huh? As if that weren't odd enough, Avatar also has to distinguish itself from the well-known cartoon "Avatar: The Last Airbender", which also has a forthcoming film adaptation.
Titanic also had incredible legs - remember the Italian teenager who saw it every day for over a month? - whereas Avatar's biggest push has been amongst the fanboy crowd, who tend to top-load opening weekends and then disappear. Much of Titanic's appeal came from Leonardo DiCaprio, fresh from teen hits Romeo + Juliet and The Basketball Diaries. Conversely, Avatar's lead, Sam Worthington, is a relative unknown, coming off of Terminator: Salvation, a film out of favor with both critics or crowds. This may be why some reports place Avatar Day events in half-full theaters.
Another reason for the sparse attendance is Cameron & Fox's technophilia clashing with accessibility. Too much attention has been placed on Avatar's state-of-the-art 3D filmmaking and IMAX 3D release. The answer to all criticism thus far has been "just wait 'til you see it in IMAX 3D!" But how many of these screens actually exist? Judging by box office receipts, not that many; the current IMAX 3D record, held by The Polar Express, is a mere $45 million (and this was over a period of 4 years). Regarding international markets, Dreamworks CEO & 3D cheerleader Jeffrey Katzenberg admits they are even "further behind" than the U.S. in 3D screen counts. Avatar's running time of over two-and-a-half hours further limits the number of screenings that can be held in a day.
This emphasis on Avatar as 3D theatrical event also severely handicaps the home market where, despite a battering in the last couple years, the majority of studio money is still made. Newsweek reported this week on 3D television prototypes, but the fact remains that there is currently no reliable method of delivering 3D on DVD. Ditto for broadcast rights, times ten (how would networks distribute the glasses?). All this furthers the pressure on Avatar to make back its colossal budget right now.
And did I mention the trailer sucks?
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